How Sealed Product EV Works
Expected collection value, or EV, estimates the average retail marketplace value of the modeled Magic cards you would add to your collection across many identical packs, boxes, or bundles. It includes cards below $1 or €1, but it is not resale value, expected profit, or a prediction of what one product will contain.
What EV tells you
Each included card affects the average based on how often it appears and its reference price on the selected marketplace. Rare, expensive cards can raise EV even when most packs are worth less than the displayed average.
Quick example:If a $40 card appears once every 20 packs, it adds about $2 to each pack's EV. That does not mean every pack contains $2 of value from that card. Most packs will not contain it at all.
How MythicHub estimates EV
MythicHub models the weighted card slots in Play, Collector, Draft, and Set Booster Packs, then combines those pack values with supported auxiliary boosters and guaranteed cards for Booster Boxes and Bundles.
- Consider the cards included in the estimate and how likely each is to be pulled.
- Find its recent price on the selected marketplace, using the exact nonfoil, foil, or etched version.
- Give more weight to cards that are likely to appear more often.
- Combine all available prices, including prices below $1 or €1, to estimate the booster's EV.
How complete the pricing is
Price coverage shows how complete the pricing behind the EV is. Cards that appear often matter more than very rare pulls, so the percentage is not simply a count of different card names.
- High coverage
- Prices were available for at least 95% of likely card pulls.
- Partial coverage
- Prices were available for at least 85%, but less than 95%, of likely card pulls.
- Low coverage
- Prices were available for less than 85% of likely card pulls.
If no recent price is available, that card adds $0 to EV and lowers price coverage. Lower coverage therefore means the estimate may leave out more card value. Even High coverage is not a guarantee: price coverage does not predict what you will open or what one product will be worth. It also cannot tell you whether a missing price belongs to a cheap card or an expensive one.
A card with a known price is included even when it is worth less than $1 or €1. Because its price is available, it does not lower price coverage.
Comparing EV with product price
Value vs price is EV minus the current product market price. The percentage compares that difference with the product price.
A positive, green comparison does not guarantee profit, and a negative, red comparison does not make an opening a loss. A few high-value pulls can lift the average while most packs return less, and the prices shown are not guaranteed sale prices. Differences below 10% use a neutral gray percentage badge. Green or red badges become stronger at 10%, 25%, and 50% differences from the product price.
A missing product market price does not block EV. The product price and comparison remain unavailable until that price exists.
What to keep in mind
What is included
MythicHub shows EV for individual Play, Collector, Draft, and Set Booster Packs, ordinary Booster Boxes, standard Bundles, historical Fat Packs, Gift Bundles, Gift Packs, and Holiday Gift Boxes when their meaningful card contents can be resolved. Boxes and bundles combine the EV of included boosters with the market value of guaranteed promo cards and auxiliary configurations such as box toppers or promotional packs. Included quantities apply through nested fixed packaging, and only explicitly identified guaranteed cards are added. A bundle whose boosters are all auxiliary configurations appears under Type → All rather than a Play, Collector, Draft, or Set filter.
Land packs, basic lands, tokens, emblems, reference and checklist cards, oversized player cards, storage materials, and other accessories do not contribute value. Products are excluded instead of showing partial EV when their meaningful card contents are unresolved, such as a non-land deck or a text-only promo-card description. Cases, master cases, premium bundles, Game Night products, unknown bundle variants, prerelease kits, sample packs, hanger packs, display packs, retailer-exclusive packaging, Minimal Packaging variants, variable-content products, and other unusual product forms will not appear in EV comparisons.
Serialized and headliner cards are left out, including guaranteed cards, because their pricing data is not reliable enough for this comparison.
When EV appears and updates
EV appears one week after a supported product is released, giving launch prices time to settle. Prices and EV refresh daily.
If today's card price is unavailable, MythicHub may use a recent price from the same marketplace for the exact nonfoil, foil, or etched version. Prices that are no longer recent are treated as missing. Prices from different marketplaces or finishes are never mixed. If no recent price is available, that card adds $0 to EV and lowers price coverage.
What EV leaves out
EV is a collection-value estimate based on marketplace reference prices, not a cash-out estimate. It does not include seller discounts, marketplace fees, card condition, shipping, taxes, how quickly cards sell, or the time and effort required to sell them. It also does not show what a typical pack is worth, the full range of possible pack values, or your chance of breaking even.
Reliably priced inexpensive cards contribute their marketplace reference prices. Serialized and headliner cards do not contribute because their pricing data is not reliable enough, and their value is not displayed as a separate EV.
Booster configurations estimate card-slot probabilities rather than reproducing a printing facility's physical collation. Color balancing, duplicate prevention, and some older foil odds may therefore be approximate. Art cards, tokens, ad cards, checklist cards, and non-card accessories are not included, so the displayed EV is the estimated market value of modeled Magic cards only.